Economic & Market Update

Decoding the election economy When politicians hit the campaign trail, their first talking point tends to be the economy. Yet, despite the talking points you’re likely to hear, the U.S. economy doesn’t fluctuate dramatically based on who’s in the Oval Office. Here’s what the data has to say about how the U.S. economy has performed…

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Does it matter to the economy who the President is? Maybe, but not much. A narrow market recovery continues to be driven by the Magnificent 7 stocks. The labor market has eased but remains strong. A key to growing forward will be continuing to attract non-native low-to-high skill workers. Scamming is getting more…

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Inflation is not cooperating with the Federal Reserve target of 2% annualized Core CPE and is unlikely to get there in an orderly fashion. Prioritizing credit management and duration risk in an uncertain interest rate environment. Consumers remain strong spenders, according to Visa, and consumer sentiment is at an inflection point according to…

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As we reflect on 2023, initial fears of a tumultuous year were unfounded. Instead, we saw an economy that not only held its ground but also demonstrated remarkable growth amidst moderating inflation rates. However, a slight uptick in inflation towards the end of the year suggests we should remain vigilant. This recent development…

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The 3rd Quarter is over and the end of the year is around the corner. It may or may not feel like the end of the year if you are a resident of California and still haven’t had to file and pay your taxes for 2022. If you are covered under the CA…

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This year has seen the complete reversal of the commodity picture that we saw in 2022. Last year, commodities were the best-performing asset class; this year, they have been the worst. This is a typical trend for commodities as they move from boom to bust. International markets have performed the best, marking the…

Executive Summary Much of the focus in our last economic update remains in play today. The last three months have not brought much in the way of either increasing optimism or decreasing pessimism. The end of 2022 was a snuffed out Santa Claus rally providing a fitting ending to an otherwise unexciting year. For the…

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A strong dollar is making foreign travel cheap and exports expensive. This will likely continue to weaken our economy by exacerbating the current trade deficit. Housing is expensive and the real estate market is slowing down. Our current investment thesis is a focus on domestic value equities and high quality short-duration fixed income…

Executive Summary What a year so far. It has been up and down, with mostly downs. The market bears are out in full force and the headwinds feel like a windstorm not a breeze. The only positive performing asset class to date is commodities, with all other major asset classes posting losses. The big news…

Executive Summary Inflation expectations are sticky business in the world of economics. In the world of common sense, they are more straightforward.  Interest rates are expected to go higher, tapering is beginning, and fiscal stimulus appears to have come to an end. This should help to pull back inflation.  Duration/interest rate risk is on the…