Economic & Market Update

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The 3rd Quarter is over and the end of the year is around the corner. It may or may not feel like the end of the year if you are a resident of California and still haven’t had to file and pay your taxes for 2022. If you are covered under the CA…

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The U.S. economy is proving very resilient. The outlook at the start of the year was for a recession at some point in the second half of 2023. We have not seen the beginnings of a downturn yet, but we are seeing momentum slow. The S&P 500 has rebounded strongly, albeit in a…

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This year has seen the complete reversal of the commodity picture that we saw in 2022. Last year, commodities were the best-performing asset class; this year, they have been the worst. This is a typical trend for commodities as they move from boom to bust. International markets have performed the best, marking the…

Executive Summary Much of the focus in our last economic update remains in play today. The last three months have not brought much in the way of either increasing optimism or decreasing pessimism. The end of 2022 was a snuffed out Santa Claus rally providing a fitting ending to an otherwise unexciting year. For the…

This Visual Capitalist “Official Bingo Card” from the Global Forecast Series lays out 25 expert predictions for 2023 in a five-by-five grid. The makers say they drew on 500-plus articles, reports, podcasts, and interviews. Colored dots tag each square by theme (economy, technology, markets, geopolitics, and everything else), with more dots signaling more frequent mentions.…

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A strong dollar is making foreign travel cheap and exports expensive. This will likely continue to weaken our economy by exacerbating the current trade deficit. Housing is expensive and the real estate market is slowing down. Our current investment thesis is a focus on domestic value equities and high quality short-duration fixed income…

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY It will likely be months before a recession is officially called, but it is certainly feeling like data coming out of the 2nd quarter will not provide much solace. Economic indicators are divergent with both encouraging and discouraging data points. Remember that missing the best days in the market is a recipe for…

We get a lot of questions about the role of the Federal Reserve in interest rates. These questions range in specificity and are often influenced by the high volume of headlines speculating about what the Fed will do next or analyzing its role in the stock market and economy. With the Central Bank forecasting a…

Executive Summary What a year so far. It has been up and down, with mostly downs. The market bears are out in full force and the headwinds feel like a windstorm not a breeze. The only positive performing asset class to date is commodities, with all other major asset classes posting losses. The big news…