Economic & Market Update

The situation between Russia and Ukraine is evolving rapidly. After gathering on the border with Ukraine, Russia has now started a broader invasion of the country. Initially Russian troops moved into disputed areas in the Donbas region, but Russian strikes in other parts of Ukraine are now underway. In addition to the obvious humanitarian concerns,…

Executive Summary Inflation expectations are sticky business in the world of economics. In the world of common sense, they are more straightforward.  Interest rates are expected to go higher, tapering is beginning, and fiscal stimulus appears to have come to an end. This should help to pull back inflation.  Duration/interest rate risk is on the…

Executive Summary Stock concentration in the S&P 500 is leading us to make changes in how we allocate between passive and active management.  Supply chain delivery times are a good indicator of the path of inflation; businesses are taking notice and expressing lengthened expectations on normalization of their supply chain.  Job growth missed expectations again…

Executive Summary A little bit of fear, but a lot of good, comes from being invested right now.  Predicting the future is a fickle thing, but a common concern is that the U.S. will go the way of Japan with the amount of debt we are taking on as a percentage of GDP.  The government…

Executive Summary Markets are responding well to vaccination progress and consumers are returning to more normal behavior.  Inflation is a real thing, but something we have not experienced significantly in a long time. As such, it appears to be misunderstood and a bit too feared.  The start of 2021 has seen its fair share of…

Executive Summary Despite all the turmoil markets ended 2020 substantially above the intra-year lows.  It is easy to conflate politics and market performance in our minds. The reality is far more mundane with positive market performance no matter the political leadership scenario. Fiscal and monetary stimulus does influence the markets, and we have that in…

Executive Summary Markets have rebounded significantly though there remains a great deal of uncertainty in the economic environment.  Recovery expectations are tempered as reopening policies are being paused and reversed by a number of state and local governments. The good, the bad, and the Fed as it pertains to current economic conditions.  Looking Back The…